Ten players, $845.95 million still owed from 2027 on, and seven of them are 33 or older.
Money figures are from FanGraphs RosterResource, MLB Trade Rumors and FanGraphs contract pages, all read Oct. 30, 2026. Ages are as of Oct. 30, 2026, from FanGraphs and checked against MLB's player records. Opinion is labeled as opinion.*
Here's the question for the next several winters: are the Phillies paying for aging players whose production no longer matches the contract, with years left that they can't easily get out of? They still owe ten players $845.95 million from 2027 on, and seven of them are 33 or older. That's MLB Trade Rumors' total from its Oct. 26 Offseason Outlook, which lists unpaid salary and does not include the signing bonus proration FanGraphs counts. The ages, as of Oct. 30, 2026, are Wheeler at 36, Realmuto at 35, Harper and Mayza at 34, Turner, Schwarber and Nola at 33, Keller at 31, and Luzardo and Sánchez at 29.
Five of the ten, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and J.T. Realmuto, come to $486.89 million from 2027 on by FanGraphs' count, which adds each year's salary to its slice of any signing bonus. Take out the $7.69 million of Harper's bonus proration that MLB Trade Rumors leaves out, and the five are owed $479.19 million.
Turner, 33, is $190.91 million through 2033. That is $27.27 million a year for seven more seasons, which is 22.6 percent of the $845.95 million the Phillies owe the ten. In 2026 he was minus-10 in Outs Above Average and tied for the major league lead with 21 errors, according to NBC Sports Philadelphia. Dave Dombrowski said on Oct. 15: "He knows he has to be better at shortstop. And I told him that's really mandatory that he's like that." He added that Turner can play shortstop if he plays it like he did in 2025, but "if he plays it like he did in '26, he can't." The payments don't change with the quote. FanGraphs and MLB Trade Rumors both have him at $27.27 million a year until 2033, which is the season he turns 40.
Harper, 34, is $118 million unpaid through 2031, or $125.69 million with the bonus proration. He was one of two Phillies hitters meaningfully better than league average in 2026, per MLB Trade Rumors, with a 135 wRC+ and 3.3 WAR on FanGraphs. He also has a full no-trade clause, per FanGraphs.
Nola, 33, is $98.29 million through 2030, which is four more years at $24.57 million. In 2026 he had a 4.67 ERA, a 4.87 FIP and 1.3 WAR over 175.1 innings. Is that worth what he's owed?
Realmuto, 35, is $30 million through 2028, $15 million a year, and he hit .205/.283/.331 with a 68 wRC+ and 0.7 WAR. He has 10-and-5 rights. My opinion: $15 million a year is a lot to pay for a 68 wRC+, and he's signed through 2028.
Wheeler, 36, is the short one. He is $42 million for one year and finished 2026 with a 3.00 ERA. Dombrowski said Wheeler previously indicated that 2027 could be his last season, and that the two have not discussed it recently. Wheeler's is the first of the big contracts to come off.
After 2027, Harper, Turner, Nola and Realmuto cost $92.84 million in 2028, $73.84 million in 2029 and 2030, and $49.27 million in 2031, when only Harper and Turner remain of the four. Of the four, it's Turner alone, at $27.27 million, in 2032 and 2033.
My opinion: none of this will be easy to move. Dombrowski acknowledged at the same press conference that the club has several highly paid veterans, many of them with full no-trade protection or 10-and-5 rights, and said the Phillies are not looking to trade their prominent veteran hitters or starting pitchers, as NBC Sports Philadelphia reported. He also said the club needs at least one outfielder and left-handed bullpen help.
Not all of it is aging money. Harper's 2026 and Wheeler's 3.00 ERA are the exceptions among the five, and Luzardo and Sánchez are 29. The other five: MLB Trade Rumors has Jesús Luzardo owed $135 million through 2031, with a club option for 2032, Kyle Schwarber $120 million through 2030, Cristopher Sánchez $98 million through 2032, including $20 million deferred to 2035 through 2044, with a club option for 2033, Brad Keller $11 million through 2027 and Tim Mayza $2.75 million through 2027.
For 2027, the Phillies' commitments are $216.38 million, or $211.59 million, depending on who is counting, and the gap is bookkeeping, plus Mayza.
The $216.38 million covers nine players: Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber, Turner, Jesús Luzardo, Harper, Nola, Cristopher Sánchez, Realmuto and Brad Keller. It is FanGraphs RosterResource's 2027 table, which counts salary plus prorated signing bonus, and it does not yet include Tim Mayza. The $211.59 million is MLB Trade Rumors' figure from its Oct. 26 Offseason Outlook, and it covers ten players: those nine plus Mayza at $2.75 million. It counts base salary only, so Schwarber is $30 million instead of $33 million, Harper is $26 million instead of $27.54 million, Sánchez is $6 million instead of $7 million and Keller is $11 million instead of $13 million. Add Mayza's $2.75 million to the nine-player total, remove $7.54 million of bonus proration, and you land on $211.59 million. Spotrac lists $219.9 million for the same ten, on a different basis. Same contracts, three bookkeeping methods, and one of the totals leaves out Mayza. The $845.95 million at the top is a different measure from either 2027 number, because it covers every year left on the ten contracts.
The payroll and tax projections are separate from those. MLB Trade Rumors' tracker projects a 2027 payroll of $264.94 million on the labor relations department basis, which is the cash-style measure. That is $53.35 million more than the ten guaranteed contracts, so MLB Trade Rumors is counting a lot of roster that isn't on the guaranteed list. The tax isn't figured off that number. MLB Trade Rumors' competitive balance tax payroll is $286.98 million, and the projected tax of $25.24 million comes from that one. It would be the third-largest tax bill in baseball, behind the Dodgers at $134.3 million and the Mets at $27.5 million. MLB Trade Rumors' year-end estimate for the 2026 tax bill was $61.77 million. All of this is a projection, because the collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1 and nobody knows what the 2027 threshold or the rates will be, or whether there will be a tax at all.
For 2026, MLB Trade Rumors has the Phillies finishing at $291.82 million on the labor relations basis and $322.51 million on the tax basis. They lost the Wild Card Series to Atlanta, two games to one.
Next year they have at least $211.59 million committed to ten players, and Dombrowski says they still need an outfielder and a left-handed reliever. Wheeler's $42 million comes off after 2027. Harper, Turner, Nola and Realmuto are still owed $92.84 million in 2028, before Luzardo, Schwarber and Sánchez. Turner is still collecting in 2033. That's a long time.
How they could prove us wrong: if Turner plays shortstop the way Dombrowski said he has to, if Nola's ERA and FIP come in under 2026's 4.67 and 4.87, or if Realmuto's 68 wRC+ moves up, the money looks better than it does here. Those are 2027 results, and nothing in this piece predicts them.
1. The Phillies still owe ten players $845.95 million from 2027 on, and seven of them are 33 or older. Trea Turner alone is $190.91 million through 2033. That's the bill. Original analysis from Ryan Keane.
2. The Phillies' 2027 commitments are $216.38 million by FanGraphs and $211.59 million by MLB Trade Rumors. FanGraphs counts nine players' salaries plus prorated signing bonuses. MLB Trade Rumors counts ten players' base salaries only, with Tim Mayza included. The gap is bookkeeping, plus Mayza.
3. MLB Trade Rumors has the Phillies at $264.94 million for 2027 and a $25.24 million tax bill. Those two numbers are on different bases.
Bob Boone has died at 78, confirmed by his son Bret. He caught Tug McGraw's series-ending strikeout of Willie Wilson in Game 6 of the 1980 World Series, and he hit .412 in that Series, 7-for-17, with no strikeouts. A Philadelphia remembrance of the catcher behind that last pitch, the first title, and a three-generation baseball family.
Turner has $190.9 million left and a full no-trade clause. Marsh is the only one who can actually move.
Ken Rosenthal reported the only condition under which Harper would waive his no-trade clause: a new team extending him past 2031, into his forties. Five straight playoff exits have this town dreaming big. The math has other ideas.
Jhoan Duran threw a 1.82 ERA with 33 saves for the Phillies in 2026. Baseball-Reference has him free-agent eligible after 2027. That's one arbitration season of club control left, and every multi-year pitch sits under a Dec. 1 CBA clock.
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